Cap Space Report: Who Can Actually Buy

$13.0M at the top, $6.9M at the bottom. The auction is going to be decided by six teams.

Talent wins leagues; liquidity wins offseasons. Here''s the money picture heading into the auction, with the developmental squad counted as the flat $3.0M the constitution says it is.

The buyers ($12M+): Jersey City ($13.0M), Boston ($13.0M), Toledo ($12.8M), Florida ($12.5M). Four teams that kept elite talent and kept powder dry — mostly by using the impact tag instead of the franchise tag. All four used the $2.0M loophole. That is not a coincidence; that is the whole lesson of lock day.

The middle ($10M–$12M): Alaska ($11.7M), Newark ($10.7M), Montclair ($10.4M), West Hartford ($10.4M), Philadelphia ($10.2M). Enough to win two or three real bids, not enough to win a bidding war against Jersey City. These teams should be shopping in hour three, not hour one.

The squeezed (under $10M): Louisville ($9.8M), Maine ($9.6M), Chicago ($6.9M). Louisville has nine draft picks to cover the gap. Maine has seven and a $5.0M quarterback. Chicago has six picks, no first-rounder, and $6.9M — which at the $0.2M draft-pick salary is fine for filling a roster and useless for improving one.

The pattern: every team with $12M+ used an impact tag. Every team under $10M used a franchise tag. The $3.0M difference between the two tags is, functionally, the difference between shopping and watching.