THE SHARTER REPORT: THE MONEY, THE RUMORS, AND THE LIES NJFFL OWNERS ARE TELLING EACH OTHER

Three days out from the gavel, the New Jersey Fantasy Football League is doing what it always does in the last week of August: lying to each other with a straight face.

Monday, August 31, 7:30 p.m. ET. Phase 1 is the free agency auction. Phase 2 is the seven-round draft. Between now and then, every owner in this league will tell you they're "probably just sitting this one out." Ignore all of it. Here's what's actually happening.

The money is not where you think it is

Everyone assumes Alaska is broke because Alaska is always broke. Not this year. The Lookouts carried 13 bodies out of mini-camp at $11.5M committed — the lowest cap number in the league — and they own the No. 1 overall pick. That is the single most dangerous combination on the board Monday night: the deepest wallet and the first bite of the draft.

Behind them, Jersey City ($12.0M), Boston ($12.0M), Toledo ($12.2M) and Florida ($12.5M) all have real room. On the other end, Chicago sits at $16.4M with ten players locked in, Maine at $15.4M on only eight, and Louisville at $15.2M. Those are contenders who already spent. They can win a lot; they cannot win everything.

Maine is the fascinating one. Eight players, $15.4M, a franchise tag on the quarterback. That's a roster built like a top seed and a checkbook built like a rebuild. The Machine hold picks 4 and 7 in the first round — expect them to lean on the draft and pick their spots in the auction rather than get into a bidding war they can't finish.

Quarterback is the whole auction

Look at the top of the board and try not to laugh: the eleven most expensive available free agents are all quarterbacks. Stafford ($3.8M), Drake Maye ($3.7M), Goff ($3.3M), Mayfield, Nix and Mahomes all at $3.0M, then Darnold, Rodgers, Love, Brissett, Stroud.

Thirty-one quarterbacks are sitting in the pool. That's the tell. There is no shortage — there's a shortage of nerve. Somebody is going to panic at 7:45 p.m., drop $4.5M on a name, and spend the rest of the night watching a comparable arm go for half that in the eleventh hour. It happens every single year, and every single year somebody swears it won't be them.

The value play is obvious and nobody will take it: let the first three quarterbacks go, then buy the fourth.

The skill-position board is thin, and that's the story

Fifty-two running backs and forty-eight receivers are technically available. Now look at the prices. Tony Pollard at $1.6M is the most expensive non-quarterback on the entire board. After him it's Charbonnet, Gainwell, Jordan Mason, Monangai, Tyrone Tracy — rotational pieces and handcuffs.

At receiver, the best name available is Michael Pittman at $1.0M, with Deebo Samuel and Troy Franklin at $0.9M. At tight end you can get Kelce, Pitts, Kittle or Goedert for a dollar.

Translation: the impact skill talent came off the board on lock day. What's left in the auction is depth and bye-week insurance. If you're planning to rebuild your roster Monday, you're planning to lose.

Round 1 is where the real leverage lives

The first round reads like a trade log, because it is one:

1. Alaska · 2. Newark · 3. Boston · 4. Maine · 5. Florida · 6. Philadelphia · 7. Maine · 8. Montclair Heights · 9. Philadelphia · 10. Toledo · 11. Florida · 12. Louisville

Three teams hold two first-rounders: Maine (4, 7), Philadelphia (6, 9) and Florida (5, 11). West Hartford holds none — the Wolverines shipped their first and second to Philadelphia and are betting entirely on the auction and the back half of the draft. Jersey City is in the same boat at the top after sending its first to Florida.

Philadelphia at 6 and 9 with $14.8M already committed is the swing story of the night. They can't buy big and pick big. Something gives.

Three things to actually watch Monday

1. The three-pass rule. Every team gets three passes in the nomination order, and once you burn the third you're out of the bidding entirely — you keep only your right to match. Watch who burns passes early trying to be cute. Watch Louisville, who nominates first and sets the tone for the whole night.

2. Right to match. It's live and it's visible on the board. There will be at least one owner who runs a name up to punish a rival and eats the contract when the match doesn't come.

3. Chicago and Louisville's restraint. Both are near the top of committed salary. If either one gets aggressive early, they're mortgaging the season. If either one sits quiet until the room runs dry, they walk out with the best value of the night.

The prediction nobody asked for

Total auction spend clears $18M league-wide. Two quarterbacks go north of $4M. At least one owner passes three times before the ninth nomination and spends the rest of the evening on the phone trying to trade for the guy he refused to bid on.

And Alaska — 13 players, $11.5M, the No. 1 pick — walks out of Monday night with the best roster in this league and the worst attitude about it.

See you at 7:30.